How the Forecast Is Made – Weather Machine Reveals

I know. I use The Weather Company app, which is very accurate; and gives alerts. Which combined with the auto alerts, Had let me know when sudden bad storms are coming every time.

I’ve compared it to the The Weather app on my iPhone, which as the author notes gets its data from The Weather Channel, which gets its data from IBM (same source as The Weather Company) and that was not as accurate. I know why IBM gets it right, I don’t understand how a company that only does Weather can’t.

Helps if you understand what they’re forecasting… If it’s a large system that’s moving to your area, the forecast is almost always right, down to the hour.

If they’re forecasting a system that may or may not develop things get dicier.

1) That system could be reliant entirely upon another major system moving as expected/predicted. (Hurricanes, fronts) These are usually right within 3 days of the forecast.

2) The development of a system within your region is entirely dependent on local conditions before any “system” has developed or is expected to influence. AKA a startup of a brand new system or entirely local weather event. These are usually “wrong” or inaccurate like parts of the city get wet but others don’t. Sometimes by the block. But, you have to account for a larger area than just parts of the city in a forecast, thus the “inaccuracy”

But when they forecast 100% sun or overcast people like you grab their pitchforks. So, to be fair, they have to give a percentage. Even then, when certain it will develop, crap happens.

Not many appreciate how accurate a weather forecast is. Especially when it’s done weeks in advance. They just assume, no duh it was going to rain because hur dur look at it rain. But weeks ago, let alone days ago, it was hardly a guarantee and most people would have said it would be 100% sunny, no doubts, without weather forecasting.

So, you’re either not getting your information from a reputable source or you’re not understanding it, whatsoever. Particularly if you happen to live in your own micro-climate that has terrain, water features, jet streams, etc. that affect weather and forecasts in your area more than normal and more than say the city you live 50 miles away from.

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